Melhoria da eficiência dos programas de erradicação da tuberculose animal na interface pecuária-fauna selvagem através de uma abordagem científica multidisciplinar

Substantial financial resources have been invested by the European Union and member states in the eradication of animal tuberculosis (TB) in cattle in the last decades (> 1 billion € in the 2010s alone) [1]. This investment has been largely squandered, as the TB herd prevalence has increased in most countries still not classified as Officially Tuberculosis Free [1]. This trend has been ascribed to (1) the poor effectiveness of current eradication programs (2) in the context of emerging multi-host communities, including wildlife reservoirs [2,3,4]. The research project aims to improve the effectiveness of TB eradication programs in cattle by developing and providing innovative science-based approaches and tools. Such aim will be pursued by embracing empirical frameworks and data analysis tools not previously applied to TB, bridging the epidemiology and ecology disciplines. Two complementary work packages will be addressed: WP 1. Development and implementation of innovative data analysis tools to inform and improve the effectiveness of current programs. This WP will be based on the application of multi-event capture-recapture models to the massive datasets created by eradication programs. Specific objectives are to: O 1.1. Estimate the performance of the diagnostic test at each farm. This will identify farms where the diagnostic test is underperforming, likely due to operator deficiency or fraud, allowing targeting ensuing corrective measures. O 1.2. Estimate the incidence at the farm level. This will quantify transmission at each farm, a program evaluation parameter currently not assessed by eradication programs. O 1.3. Evaluate optimal cutoffs of the diagnostic test. This will increase the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test, allowing a more accurate removal of infected animals. WP 2. Implementation of data-driven quantitative epidemiological risk assessments of TB outbreaks to identify the local reservoir hosts within multi-host communities. This will be based on estimating the species- and site-specific basic reproduction number for each host within outbreak farms. Specific objectives are to: O 2.1. Identify the reservoir hosts at each cattle herd outbreak. This will allow for the targeting of corrective measures to the locally important reservoir hosts, promoting a more effective eradication of TB in each herd. O 2.2. Identify the drivers of the contribution of each host species to TB maintenance across study sites and extrapolate over larger geographical units of the Iberian Peninsula. This will allow us to spatially predict the local reservoir hosts of TB within multi-host communities. Addressing this research question and objectives as detailed below will assist in designing improved TB eradication programs targeting all the maintenance hosts that enable the disease to persist despite a significant and sustained investment in eradication. Animal TB is a disease of major economic importance for the livestock industry throughout large regions of Europe [3]. Although a zoonosis of minor public health relevance in the Iberian Peninsula impacts health, productivity, and welfare [5]. Animal TB also has conservation relevance as one of the leading infectious diseases of the endangered Iberian lynx [6]. The proposed research plan will thus positively impact the economy, society, and the environment.